By: Marc H. Morial
President and CEO
National Urban League
It was just days ago, wasn't it, that the air seemed thick with celebration over the expected good news about the job market.
The stock market had been on an upward course for several weeks. Consumer confidence was beginning to rebound. Economists far and wide predicted the jobs picture would be the next cause for confetti throwing.
It seems like a cruel joke now.
In a stunning deflation of expectation, the federal monthly employment report released last week determined that, instead of the 150,000 new jobs that were widely expected, just 1,000 new ones could be counted.
We've been thrown back to an unprecedented grim reality—as one economist said: "this report is telling us we're still stuck in a jobless recovery."
Even the decline in the unemployment rate, to 5.7 percent, down from November's 5.9 percent, is being largely discounted as "specious,"in the words of another analyst, because so many jobless chose not to look for work. Meanwhile, African Americans continue to form a disproportionate share of the 8.4 million Americans out of work: their double-digit unemployment rate of 10.2 percent continues to be twice that of whites.
Moreover, along with the December employment report, the federal government substantially scaled back its earlier estimates of job gains for October and November, from 143,000 jobs created, to 94,000.
That means that in the five months since the economy has begun adding jobs after two years of declines, the pace of new jobs has been far below the 150,000 monthly benchmark that indicates the workforce is providing jobs for everyone who wants to work.
A comparative study of economic recessions by the National Urban League's Institute of Equality and Opportunity shows that while many economic indicators are charting a path to economic recovery, unemployment remains static and those hit hardest are the ones who can least afford it.
A jobless recovery, or one that produces lower earnings, and therefore lower consumer spending, should be unacceptable to workers and businesses alike. Unemployment insurance was never designed to be a long-term or lifelong program. It was intended as a kind of backstop to help displaced workers make the transition into new jobs.
Through much of its history, that is exactly what unemployment has meant to millions of workers. But in this current recovery we are seeing a different, more troubling trend.
According to the IOE report, some 70 percent of workers are dropping off the unemployment rolls because their time has elapsed, not because they are finding other jobs. This is particularly true with minority workers in urban areas.
As both President Bush and the Democrats running for president have indicated, we cannot realistically categorize the current economic conditions as a "recovery" if there are no new jobs. There is no such thing as a "jobless recovery."
We as a nation must do more.
And we at the National Urban League intend to.
First, we will host a jobs summit this spring and invite the nation's top business and labor leaders. Our purpose is not partisan debate, but a realistic search for solutions to the jobs gap facing millions of American workers. That search can't wait for the election cycle of this year to end, nor can it depend solely on ideas being advanced by one party or the other.
Second, we are forming a jobs commission to be a potent force in pushing the effort to put people back to work.
Finally, our Institute of Opportunity and Equality will issue quarterly reports on the status of the economic recovery to monitor our progress.
It is our challenge as leaders to make sure that as America celebrates the encouraging economic numbers, it does not forget the most important number for real economic recovery: the number of people working.
Republican President Ronald Reagan was fond of quoting Democratic President John F. Kennedy when describing the concept of economic recovery reaching every American: "A rising tide lifts all boats."
It is in that spirit that we must begin looking for answers and challenging our leaders to put aside partisan differences and begin working together for those who are the backbone of America: American workers.
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